New demographic study shows shift in school enrollment projections

At the May 8, 2006 meeting of the Sparta Board of Education, the board reviewed the results of a recent school demographic study. The study, complied by Sundance Associates of Cherry Hill, N.J., gives the board of education an updated projection of the district’s future enrollment. The report indicates that Sparta’s schools will continue to grow, but the enrollment in the schools has shifted. The last time a study was done was in April 2004. However, shortly after the report was released, the Highlands Water Protection and Planning Act was passed, significantly impacting residential development and in turn, the last study’s growth predictions. Because of this legislation and the fact that this year’s actual enrollment numbers differed from the projections (the elementary school numbers were lower than predicted and the high school numbers higher), the board commissioned a new study. The new study shows that enrollments at the Mohawk Avenue School (grade 5) and Sparta Middle School (grades 6 to 8) will fluctuate by about 40 students in each building over the next five school years, but remain well within the buildings’ capacities. More growth will be seen in the elementary schools and high school. In the Alpine and Helen Morgan elementary schools (K to grade 4), the anticipated increase is 60 students over the next five years, bringing the enrollment to a high of 1,579. This number is significantly lower than the previous demographic study, which predicted a high of 1,714 students in 2008-2009. Why the difference? In addition to the Highlands Act and other regulatory hurdles, the type of new housing being built in town is shifting. The number of multi-family and age-restricted units is expected to increase greatly, and these types of housing tend to generate less children than single-family units. At the high school, growth exceeds previous projections. According to the most recent report, enrollment is expected to grow from the current 1,172 students to 1,387 in 2008-2009. The previous study anticipated 1,252 students in the same year. Why the difference? One of the primary reasons is that the ratio of eighth graders continuing on to Sparta High School has increased every year, and is expected to continue at the current level. There is no denying that we now face buildings that are over capacity at both the elementary and high school levels. However, the updated demographics indicate that the growth at the elementary schools will be minimal compared to that at the high school. An increase of 60 elementary students over five grade levels in two buildings will be easier to cope with and have less of an impact on curriculum than an increase of 215 high school students in four grades in one building. This does not mean that the district will not continue to look at ways to alleviate the elementary school overcrowding, but it does suggest that a new elementary school may not be as urgent as originally thought. Both the demographic study and the presentation made to the board are available to download from the school district’s Web site: www.sparta.org.